Sudan conflict / Singhdam collaboration Eng version based on the Thai sect
A brief timeline of the major events
Jan 1st, 1956 – Independence from the joint protectorate between the United Kingdom and Egypt
1983 – Upon the introduction of Islamic Sharia law or “September laws” by President Gaafar Nimeiry, it caused an uprising within southern Sudan, which resulted in a second civil war
1989 – General Omar al-Bashir staged a coup d’etat and ruled with impunity
2003 – The Darfur conflict began with non-muslim rebel groups fighting against the Islamic government supported by Janjaweed Paramilitary forces, leading to the infamous event known as the Darfur genocide
2011 – upon a peaceful referendum where 98% voted in favor, South Sudan became independent
2013 – The Janjaweed forces, which waged war against the Darfur region, were now renamed as the Rapid Support Force (RSF), which General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo / Hemedti controlled
2018 – Due to economic stagnation and major austerity cuts, Sudan was stricken by massive protests where democratic reforms were called for
2019 – General Omar-al-Bashir, who had ruled since 1989, was overthrown by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Daglo or also known as Hemedti, from the RSF, who put in place a short-lived transitional government with Abdalla Hamdok as prime minister
2021 – General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan later seized power from the Abdalla Hamdok government, which resulted in mass protests. This evidently removed the possibility of long-term democratic changes, and violence against protesters resumed
2023 – Due to international pressure for reform, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan attempted to merge and shuffle the Sudan armed forces (SAF) with the previously mentioned paramilitary RSF under Hemedti, but failed and resulting in another ongoing civil war
2023 to current times – The civil war has been split into two zones, where the SAF controls the majority of the eastern part of the nation, while the RSF has control over the non-arab western portion known as the Darfur region, where mass atrocities and genocide against ethnic non-muslim minorities have been documented
Introduction
Although the removal of General Omar-al-Bashir’s rule from Sudanese politics signified the possibility of democratic governance, this hope was short-lived. In the span of just 3 years, the power vacuum resulted in a jostle for power between the SAF and RSF, which resulted in the ongoing civil war, and has led to hundreds of thousands being killed with millions being displaced. Furthermore, the ongoing issue of food insecurity, loss of governmental control over areas such as its heavily devastated capital of Khartoum, has only exacerbated such calamity. Externally, another major factor worsening the more visible conflict involves foreign powers such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have been exploiting the conflict between governmental and rebel forces for their economic or political interest.
The beginning of the Sudanese conflict
Beginning at the very early stages and examining the roots of the Sudanese Civil War, we can distinctly see this as another colonial imperial legacy that took place in the 19th and early 20th century. During 1899, when Sudan was ruled under the Anglo-British and Egyptian joint protectorate, the colonial Powers established borders without regard to the region’s ethnic composition, cultural background, and religion. Instead, they established these borders as a tool of governance, employing a divide-and-conquer strategy. The North was administered via Arab Muslims’ influence with significant infrastructural and administrative development, while the South was governed separately, where they often purposefully left it underdeveloped, as a buffer zone, where Christians were often encouraged to expand their influence in said area. Evidently, this policy created sharp economic, educational, religious, and power structure asymmetry between the two territories. The North developed and received a dominant political role within the country, while the South and its outlying areas remained poor, overlooked, and exploited. Taking Darfur as an example, the remote region located in the western side of the nation was once a successive kingdom that was a vital trade route that facilitated the movement of goods such as gold. However, upon the annexation by the khadivate of Egypt in 1874 and then the annexation by Anglo-Egyptian forces in 1916, colonialism played a major factor in rendering the area politically unstable and severely resource-deprived, as most of the resources extracted/used by the colonisers were deployed towards the Nile Valley, leaving the area with little to no investments.
When Sudan gained independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956, the nation was heavily burdened due to its size and its rich ethnic and religious composition. To make matters worse, the imperial structure laid down was a ticking time bomb, ready to explode and destroy the highly diverse nation. A predominantly Muslim elite group that has a highly developed governing system and armed force began to make use of said tool by using exploitative policies against minorities in isolated areas, such as the western part of the nation, to siphon resources like oil and gold. This exacerbated the issue of resource and development inequality, resulting in major turmoil, which was further fueled by coup d’etats, by military elites, and the indiscriminate implementation of Sharia law in 1983 by President Gaafar Nimeiry, against the desires of many minorities. This became a catalyst that resulted in the second Sudanese civil war, which eventually led to the referendum and the creation of South Sudan.
The rise and fall of General Omar Al Bashir
In 1989, the situation intensified when General Omar Al Bashir seized power with military support and established himself as the ruler who dictated the country with an iron fist for three decades. Under his regime, the exploitation of ethnic minorities intensified, deteriorating the quality of life for most residing in the nation. Specifically, political freedom was suspended, and a new wave of Islamization under the international Islamic front began, which included more enforcement of Sharia law. This effort evidently marginalized groups of Christians and animalist communities, erasing minority culture and religious expression. Sudan’s livability was then further damaged by climate change, such as drought and desertification, which resulted in an influx of Arab nomads who entered and sought refuge in Darfur, fueling new tensions between Arabs and African communities. With widespread famine, major civil dissatisfaction due to ethnic oppression, and a lack of governmental aid, in 2001, African ethnic groups such as Masalit, Zaghawa, and Fur rose in a rebellion against al-Bashir’s government.
To counter his strategic failures, General al-Bashir decided to utilize the region’s ethnic hatred as a means to quell the rebellion. Since he needed more manpower under his control, he began to establish a military force that would employ mainly muslim fighters from the North to subdue the ethnic African communities. This force would be known as the Janjaweed, which in translation means “devils on horseback,” who would actively assist the Sudanese government in its wars, and in return, would receive military supplies and free rein to do as they pleased around the Chad-Sudan border. This paramilitary group, relying on indiscriminate killing and weaponization of fear to maintain Al-Bashir’s grip, committed systematic genocide throughout Sudan, that included the burning of hundreds of villages, the indiscriminate killing of civilians, and the rape of minority women. By 2007, the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Janjaweed paramilitary force had murdered at least 300,000 people in Darfur, while more than 2.1 million people became internally displaced. Due to the severity of the reported crimes, the International Criminal Court in 2009 charged General Al Bashir with genocide, but he and those involved in the killings remain unpunished.
Sometime during the Arab Spring, which occurred from December 2010 to 2011, when uprisings against authoritarian government across the Arab world became common, Al Bashir, wary of losing power, sought to further increase and secure his power by gathering various Janjaweed forces to form his own paramilitary unit known as the Rapid Support Force (RSF). The RSF would eventually be formed in 2013, with Al Bashir’s highly trusted loyalist, General Mohammed Hamdan Tagalog, or better known as Hemedti, acting as its leader. Five years later, in 2018, when Sudan’s economic crisis had worsened due to the government’s austerity measures that slashed subsidies for bread and fuel, the situation broke the last straw on the camel’s back and resulted in mass protests across Sudan calling for food security and, eventually, the return of democracy. By April 2019, and with increasingly strong protests, the Sudanese armed forces, in collaboration with the RSF under Hemedti, ousted General Al Bashir in a coup d’etat, ending his decade-long rule since 1989.
Post Al-Bashir period – From hopefulness to dread
After Bashir’s ousting in April 2019, the Sudanese people were initially hopeful that the coup would result in major democratic change. Although Fatah Al Burhan, who was by then the head of the SAF, had installed himself as head of state with Hemdti as deputy, the military eventually appointed a civilian, Abdalla Hamdok, as Prime Minister during the transitional government phase. Sadly, however, in 2021, Al-Burhan and Hemedti staged another coup to remove the civilian government, as a means to protect their own interest. The rationale stemmed from multiple reasons, with the first being how they both feared future prosecutions for war crimes, such as the Khartoum massacre in 2019, as the transitional government was cooperating with the International Criminal Court. Secondly, another major concern was how these two individuals did not want to lose governing authority and surrender more political control to the civilian population, which therefore incentivized them to derail the election process.
As a result, the Sudanese population once again took to the streets to protest, and by 2022, pressure grew internationally, where, within the new framework agreement created by the UN integrated transition assistance mission, the agreement stipulates sector reform, which includes how the RSF must be integrated into the Sudanese armed forces. Al Burhan, seeing an opportunity, wanted a fast merger timeline within two years, where it would restore the SAF dominance, but Hemedti disagreed and wanted to push the merger back by 10 years due to fears of losing his influential political power, access to the various riches, and possibly even being deposed. As a result, from being close partners, each of these powerful men with their own forces is now turning against one another in order to maintain their dominant influence.
2023 – All-out war
By April 15, 2023, RSF forces under Hemedti attempted to assassinate Al-Burhan while simultaneously attacking SAF outposts and territories across the country. While Al-Burhan survived the assassination, a civil war immediately occurred. Due to the swiftness of the RSF ambush against SAF forces, they were able to capture much of western Sudan, such as the large region known as Darfur, and then the capital Khartoum. With time, the SAF force was able to gradually regain its holdings after utilizing the superior air power to bomb strategic RSF command centers and ammunition depots. One of the most infamous events that is still ongoing is when RSF took over Darfur, which in terms of brutality, has even surpassed former dictator Al Bashir’s killings in 1989. All forms of war crimes and barbarism have been committed, where the ethnic targeting of minorities resulted in genocide, widespread rape, and enslavement of civilians. The level of said atrocities were so severe that even satellite systems in space were able to detect mass graves or pools of dried up blood stains. One very infamous case occurred at El Geneina, where the RSF force slaughtered men, women, and children of all ages, simply because they were an ethnic minority known as the Masalit. Local infrastructure in the meantime, such as hospitals, mosques, and schools, was unequivocally targeted, further rendering the region more unlivable.
With the ensuing humanitarian catastrophes, the SAF who is responsible for the protection of their own nation, did not attempt to air-drop supplies or aid the ethnically vulnerable minorities in any shape or form, resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands and the displacement of millions into the nearby deserts and neighboring country Chad. Help from international organizations has also been drastically reduced, as aid entering RSF captured cities, including El-Fasher, would be denied by SAF forces as a means to starve the opponents within. This form of tactics works both ways, highlighting how the SAF and RSF are willing to starve each other out, despite the cost of civilian casualties. Consequently, the nation is facing the worst food insecurity disaster in modern times, which would come to affect up to 18 million Sudanese.
The role of outside forces
Hedging both sides / Russia
One major factor that prolonged the conflict since 2023, is due to major foreign interference from multiple actors. The RSF appeared to have a significant advantage earlier in the war due to large financial backing from Russia, via the infamous mercenary group known as Wagner. Since Hemedti had access to major gold mines since taking his position in 2013, Russia struck a deal with the RSF to have them extract their gold in return for weapons, as a means to partially stabilize their economy and ruble currency amid international sanctions, following its invasion of Ukraine. Russia is, however, also known to play both sides. Beginning in 2024, Moscow gradually shifted closer to the SAF when the tide of the war shifted, providing weapons and oil exports to Al-Burhan. This alignment also positioned Russia to secure a Red Sea naval base, expanding its military presence and strategic reach into the Gulf.
RSF aligned / UAE
Aside from Russia, the UAE is another major international player that’s fueling the conflict in Sudan. The UAE, on a foreign policy level, is highly against Islamic extremism, and within the SAF, many high-ranking officers have significant Islamist secretariat influences. By financially backing the RSF as a proxy force, this aligns the Gulf states’ regional strategy since the Arab Spring, where they would employ proxies to counter non-moderate Islamic groups they perceive as ideologically threatening. This has been displayed before, as the UAE was highly proactive in countering the Houthis’ sphere of influence, via training and financially supporting Yemeni forces.
SAF aligned / Iran
Due to the perceived threats of Gulf states backing the RSF as a proxy, along with the need to project power within the Red Sea, the Ayatollah has steadily backed the SAF forces, where they would provide Mohajer-6 and Ababil attack drones to the SAF forces, which will later be used against RSF forces and civilians in recapturing Khartoum. In return, Iran gains a stronger Islamic foothold within the SAF regions as a means of counterbalancing the Gulf states’ influence and also attaining regional favors next to the Red Sea.Therefore, it can be concluded that foreign collusion and deals between the SAF, RSF, and various foreign nations have only prolonged and intensified the Sudanese conflict. Although countries like Russia and the UAE may secure certain strategic or economic interests, these gains come at the daily expense of civilian lives, who are forced to endure a war fueled by foreign finance and weapons that ends up further causing atrocities against minority groups.
Epilogue – what needs to be said
The war in Sudan, by all accounts, has claimed countless lives, where many faced rampant sexual violence and the loss of loved ones simply because they belong to a minority ethnic group. Millions furthermore on both sides have been displaced from their villages, repeatedly faced starvation, all because powerful elites within the nation’s fragmented political system, along with external foreign nations, wanted to maintain their powers for their own strategic gains. As human beings, the author would like to state that one cannot remain silent throughout the whole catastrophic ordeal when hearing about the pain and suffering that is currently taking place in Sudan. Therefore, there are multiple individual points that the writer would like to express:
- Both actors, such as the RSF and the SAF, along with foreign nations that seek to exploit said circumstances for their national interest, should be highly condemned
- The need to continuously call on both sides, along with foreign nations and international organizations, to negotiate for a resolution that can bring peace back to Sudan
- Further call on the international community to continue to seek a solution and not to turn their back on the issue, despite the complicated nature of said conflict
Finally, the author would like to pray that the pain and loss of the Sudanese people will end, that the gunfire of conflict would fade away, and be replaced by the light of hope and sustained peace, where freedom and democracy can soon be established in order to create a stable and prosperous state that may truly benefit the Sudanese population.
Content: Tapoal Manunyawong and Joyin Chai Charutrakulchai
Graphic Designer: กฤตยชน์ กองฉลาด, Anda Mitmakorn, Paninchaya Sawasdinavin
Proofread: ฐิญาดา บุญกูล
Leave a Reply